Performance evaluation of the mechanisms strengthening the state sovereignty of russia

Abstract

The article provides a quantitative assessment of the consequences of the government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth: 1) economic diversification; 2) reduction of differentiation of the regions; 3) social security increase of the population; 4) stimulation of domestic demand. For the calculations, a model complex developed at CEMI RAS has been modified and used. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The calculations have showed that the increase in financing of the new economy sectors in comparison with other industries leads to GDP growth by 4.45 percentage points for 7 years regarding the basic economic development. It has been established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in the struggling regions, the equalization of economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation is possible. The authors conclude that interregional smoothing process is time-consuming and a significant effect is possible in five years after the relevant mechanisms are implemented. The results of the calculations have showed that the increase in benefits as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. The reduction of the refinancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, the influence of illegal financial transactions on the main macro indicators has been calculated. The quantitative assessment has been carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of financial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period has been 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations prove that almost any cash injection into the real economy leads to GDP growth due to significant demonetization of the Russian economy.