Emigration, welfare, and politics in central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

How does large scale emigration affect politics in the peripheral states of the European Union? While a large literature looks at the political consequences of immigration in the more affluent member states, comparatively few scholars have taken up the mantle of examining the political effects of large-scale emigration in Central and Eastern Europe. From a political economy perspective, high levels of emigration, which is concentrated in the younger, more progressive parts of society, changes the makeup of both the labor force and the electorate. This article investigates how emigration and its associated economic and political consequences affect policy making and politics in Central and Eastern European countries. Evidence is provided from a difference-in-difference estimator and supplementary analyses of government and individual level data. The findings suggest that European Union membership leads to fundamental demographic changes, which affect the dominant forms of programmatic competition, and that governments reacting to this extend their stay in government.