Analysis of Dynamic Model of Cigarette Consumption Reduces First Goal of SDGs in Indonesia

Abstract

This research aims to see the extent to which the real conditions of society can be separated from the trap of poverty due to consuming cigarettes. This research uses secondary data which taken from various sources of publication. The variables used are input variables and output variables. Input variables are in the form of community income. Output variables used are average per capita expenditure. Data analysis using Dynamic System Analysis with software of ITHINK ® Ver. 6.01 from the High Performance System (2000). The result of this research indicate that in the condition of the community consuming 1 cigarette per day shows that groups of community are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty until the end of Medium Term and Long Term Development Plan is poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society. While middle to middle society, middle to upper society and rich society still have an income balance from the beginning of the research year to the next 20 years. While the result of the scenario of consumption of 2 packs of cigarettes per day show besides poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty, middle to middle society are in poverty for the next 20 years as well. Therefore the goal of the first SDGs in Indonesia to eliminate poverty is difficult to achieve.