Kidney Allograft Rejection as an Independent Nontraditional Risk Factor for Post-Transplant Cardiovascular Events

Abstract

Background Cardiovascular death is the leading cause of mortality in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Although risk factors for post-transplant cardiovascular events (CVEs) have been established, previous studies primarily focused on factors at the time of transplantation without integrating post-transplant factors into the analyses. In addition, most studies were conducted in a mixed population of cyclosporine A and tacrolimus-based immunosuppression, which have different metabolic effects. This study aims to evaluate factors for post-transplant CVEs, including both pretransplant and post-transplant variables, specifically in a population of KTRs receiving tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. Methods Competing risk regression was performed modeling participant demographics, transplant characteristics, and post-transplant time-updated variables. The primary outcome was the composite of post-transplant CVEs, which included myocardial infarction, heart failure, ischemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease, and cardiovascular death. Results The incidence of post-transplant CVEs was 15.88 per 1000 patient-years among 553 KTRs included in the study. Key factors significantly associated with post-transplant CVEs included recipient age, diabetes mellitus status, posttransplant hemoglobin A1c, 24-hour urine creatinine clearance, post-transplant serum calcium, and rejection. KTRs with a history of T-cell–mediated rejection or antibody-mediated rejection were at a three-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 7.37; P value 0.016) and 3.38-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 10.09; P value 0.029) higher risk for post-transplant CVEs, respectively. Compared with models using pretransplant factors alone, models that included both pretransplant and post-transplant variables demonstrated significantly higher prediction performance. Conclusions Allograft rejections significantly increased the risk of post-transplant CVEs. Surveillance protocols for posttransplant CVEs should include KTRs with a history of allograft rejection, in addition to the traditional high-risk groups.