A Real Case Application of Game Theoretical Concepts in a Complex Decision-Making Process: Case Study ERTMS

Abstract

Engineering systems are complex, amongst others due to the interdependencies between actor and technical aspects. This complexity has consequences for the way of designing such systems and, in particular, for the decision-making process. Recognizing the impossibility of having an optimal system design in such complex systems, this article explores how a game theoretical characterization of a decision-making process assists in the organization and design of the process itself. In contrast to a game theoretical analysis, which results in optimal outcomes, the characterization is fed back to the designers of the decision-making process during the course of the process. The study analyses how the game concept characterization was used, i.e., which strategies were defined during the game theory interventions, and what the consequences of these strategies were for the design of the decision-making process. The design of a new safety system ERTMS for the Dutch railway sector is the context in which the study was performed. The contribution is a successful approach to complex decision-making in multi-actor systems by identification of multiple game concepts over time, with periodic feedback into the designing system, and not the actual decision-making itself. In short, it supported adapting to an actor focus on the process, it affected the role and responsibilities of the program management, it contributed to (de)coupling of issues, and it influenced the capability of creating awareness amongst actors of the urgency of the decision window. The paper ends with reflections on the experience of intervening in a decision-making process with game theoretical concepts.