Machine learning to predict untreated dental caries in adolescents

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to predict adolescents with untreated dental caries through a machine-learning approach using three different algorithms Methods: Data came from an epidemiological survey in the five largest cities in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, consumption of unhealthy foods and behaviours (use of dental floss and toothbrushing) were collected using Sisson’s theoretical model, in 615 adolescents. For the machine learning, three different algorithms were used: (1) XGboost; (2) decision tree and (3) logistic regression. The epidemiological baseline was used to train and test predictions to detect individuals with untreated dental caries, through eight main predictor variables. Analyzes were performed using the R software (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). The Ethics Committee approved the study. Results: For the 615 adolescents, xgboost performed better with an area under the curve (AUC) of 84% versus 81% for the decision tree algorithm. The most important variables were the use of dental floss, unhealthy food consumption, self-declared race and exposure to fluoridated water. Conclusions: Family health teams can improve the work process and use artificial intelligence mechanisms to predict adolescents with untreated dental caries, and, in this way, schedule dental appointments for the treatment of adolescents earlier.