An analysis of second time around bankruptcies using a split-population duration model

Abstract

A significant proportion of firms that reorganize under Chapter 11 file for a second Chapter 11 protection or liquidate. We use a "split-population" duration model that provides useful information regarding factors that could lead to a second bankruptcy. We find that the probability (hazard) of a firm re-entering bankruptcy is lower for firms that take a long time to reorganize, reduce their debt-to-assets ratio, do not divest, belong to an industry that has low capacity utilization and low demand growth. We also find that the probability of an average firm re-entering bankruptcy increases for about 4 years before declining. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.