Regional analysis of temperature extremes: spatial analog for climate change?

Abstract

The statistical theory of extreme values is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature time series in the US Midwest and Southeast. If the spatial pattern in the frequency of extreme temperature events can be explained simply by shifts in location and scale parameters (eg, the mean and standard deviation) of the underlying temperature distribution, then the area under consideration could be termed a "region'. A regional analysis of temperature extremes suggests that the Type I extreme value distribution is a satisfactory model for extreme high temperatures. On the other hand, the Type III extreme value distribution (possibly with common shape parameter)) is often a better model for extreme low temperatures. Based on this regional analysis if a temporal climate change were analogous to a spatial relocation, then it would be possible to anticipate how the frequency of extreme temperature events might change. -from Authors