Determining the Influence of Long Term Urban Growth on Surface Urban Heat Islands Using Local Climate Zones and Intensity Analysis Techniques

Abstract

Urban growth, typified by conversion from natural to built-up impervious surfaces, is known to cause warming and associated adverse impacts. Local climate zones present a standardized technique for evaluating the implications of urban land use and surface changes on temperatures of the overlying atmosphere. In this study, long term changes in local climate zones of the Bulawayo metropolitan city were used to assess the influence of the city’s growth on its thermal characteristics. The zones were mapped using the World urban Database data, while the Access Portal Tool procedure was used to determine multi-temporal change. Data were divided into 1990 to 2005 and 2005 to 2020 temporal splits and intensity analysis used to characterize transformation patterns at each interval. Results indicated that growth of the built local climate zones (LCZ) in Bulawayo was faster in the 1990 to 2005 interval than the 2005 to 2020. Transition level intensity analysis showed that growth of built local climate zones was more prevalent in areas with water, low plants and dense forest LCZ in both intervals. There was a westward growth of light weight low rise built LCZ category than eastern direction, which could be attributed to high land value in the latter. Low plants land cover type experienced a large expansion of light weight low rise buildings than the compact low rise, water, and open low-rise areas. The reduction of dense forest was mainly linked to active expansion of low plants in the 2005 to 2020 interval, symbolizing increased deforestation and vegetation clearance. In Bulawayo’s growth, areas where built-up LCZs invade vegetation and wetlands have increased anthropogenic warming (i.e., Surface Urban Heat Island intensities) in the city. This study demonstrates the value of LCZs in among others creating a global urban land use land cover database and assessing the influence of urban growth pattern on urban thermal characteristics.