Machine Learning Prediction of Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemia from Electronic Health Records: Algorithm Development and Validation

Abstract

Background: Acute blood glucose (BG) decompensations (hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia) represent a frequent and significant risk for inpatients and adversely affect patient outcomes and safety. The increasing need for BG management in inpatients poses a high demand on clinical staff and health care systems in addition. Objective: This study aimed to generate a broadly applicable multiclass classification model for predicting BG decompensation events from patients’ electronic health records to indicate where adjustments in patient monitoring and therapeutic interventions are required. This should allow for taking proactive measures before BG levels are derailed. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients who were hospitalized at a tertiary hospital in Bern, Switzerland. Using patient details and routine data from electronic health records, a multiclass prediction model for BG decompensation events (<3.9 mmol/L [hypoglycemia] or >10, >13.9, or >16.7 mmol/L [representing different degrees of hyperglycemia]) was generated based on a second-level ensemble of gradient-boosted binary trees. Results: A total of 63,579 hospital admissions of 38,250 patients were included in this study. The multiclass prediction model reached specificities of 93.7%, 98.9%, and 93.9% and sensitivities of 67.1%, 59%, and 63.6% for the main categories of interest, which were nondecompensated cases, hypoglycemia, or hyperglycemia, respectively. The median prediction horizon was 7 hours and 4 hours for hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, respectively. Conclusions: Electronic health records have the potential to reliably predict all types of BG decompensation. Readily available patient details and routine laboratory data can support the decisions for proactive interventions and thus help to reduce the detrimental health effects of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia.