Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists' preferences

Abstract

it comes to the creation, delivery and communication of value to customers in selected tar-get markets. However, the concept of holistic understanding of marketing was added to this concept. Holistic marketing approach have arisen from the needs for a more comprehensive, cohesive approach with which it would be possible to overcome the traditional application of marketing concepts and try to accept and reconcile the scope and complexity of marketing activities (Kotler, Keller, 2006). In the standard case, application of marketing concept is brought in connection with business operations of companies that try to operate profitably by providing long-term cus-tomer satisfaction. However, marketing is characterized by ambiguity (Vasiljev, 2005), so it can be also seen as an economic process, as well as a business function, as a business con-cept and as a scientific discipline. Previously mentioned observation suggests that consider-ing marketing as a relation between a company and the market does not lit up all the mean-ings which can be attached to marketing, especially if one bears in mind all the things that are launched in today's market (Kotler, Keller, 2006): goods, services, events, experiences, personalities, places, property, organizations, information as well as ideas. Like all consumer products, tourist destinations need to convince customers that they have a combination of benefits that no one else can offer. By applying modern marketing techniques, destinations are trying to establish themselves as brands. How tourist destina-tions become, develop, protect and strengthen their position in the fiercer competition in the global marketplace is an issue that is arose from the tourism industry. Tourist destinations are, by their nature, substantially different from other commercial products and, there so, have its own characteristics (Crouch, 2007). Destinations and tourists interact and create the tourism experience (Von Friedrichs Grängsjö, 2003). The product of the tourism sector is an experience that is delivered by a destination to its visitors. This experience is produced not by a single firm but by all players, which impact the visitor experience. The multiplicity of players involved in the supply and delivery of tourism services, and therefore the experience of the visitor, makes management of the destination product vastly more complex compared to the management of most simple products produced by single firms (Crouch, 2007). Since individual firms have no control over the path the tourist takes through a destina-tion, the product only exists when the tourist activates that particular combination, or net-work of services (Gnoth, 2002). This provides a number of challenges from a supply point of view, because the individual operators are not able to control the service delivery of the entire experience (Ritchie and Crouch, 2003; Von Friedrichs Grängsjö, 2003). Travel plan usual-ly consists of several stages, such as the election of destination, selection of tourist attraction, accommodation choice, the decision about the route and so on. In order to recommend sat-isfactory tourist attractions to travelers the characteristics of tourist attractions, for exam-ple the activities offered in an attraction, have to match travelers' preferences (Huang, Bian, 2009). However, travel preferences are often hidden and are not explicitly known when users start to plan their trips, particularly if visiting an unfamiliar place (Viappiani, et al., 2002). In order to build an efficient user model, we have to consider tourists' preferences, to estimate them and made appropriate conclusions. The issue of what attracts tourists mostly in choosing certain destinations or certain forms of tourism is considered for years. So, if we want to get this answer we must take in consid-eration some models that would be helpful for solving this problem. In order to define the attributes that largely determine a tourist destination we took two models. The first possible approach, Bayesian approach, recognizes the fact that, at least to some extent, the collective 10 TURIZAM | Volume 16, Issue 1, 8-19 (2012) Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists' preferences experience, knowledge, and insights of tourism destination managers, researchers and oth-ers who have spent time addressing the challenge of what makes a destination competitive, can provide a useful starting point for an analysis such as this (Crouch, 2007). This Baye-sian approach to estimation and inference implies that additional information can be used to reduce uncertainty and improve knowledge (Griffiths, Hill, Judge 1993). Modern applica-tion of Bayesian methods is primarily reflected in the implementation of Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks provide a method for representing relationships between variables (called 'nodes' in the BN) even if the relationships involve uncertainty. They can be a useful mode-ling tool in situations where different types of variables and knowledge from various sources need to be integrated within a single framework (Pearl, 1988; Jensen, 1996). A Bayesian network is used to estimate the traveler's preferred activities. With the Baye-sian network, travel behavior of the person and of other travelers who have similar taste can be combined (Huang, Bian, 2009). These networks have proven to be very useful in solv-ing complex problems, identifying key variables and defining events that have the greatest likelihood of realization, so that is the reason why the authors of this paper have chosen the Bayesian network for predicting tourists' preferences. Application of second approach, the AHP model, has to highlight the aspects of using this model as a qualitative technique that is based on the evaluation and experience of deci-sion makers in evaluating information in order to reach better decisions (Srđević, 2002). Moutinho, Rita and Curry (1996) and Curry and Moutinho (1992) have examined the appli-cation of such methods in a tourism context and have identified the advantages of the Ana-lytic Hierarchy Process (Crouch, 2007). The decisions which face tourism planners typical-ly involve variables which are difficult to measure directly and even if all variables can be measured accurately there are still severe problems to be faced in obtaining numeric meas-ures of the relative importance of decision variables. The AHP was designed as an all pur-pose method for achieving these aims (Moutinho, Rita, Curry, 1996). The use of expert sys-tem techniques is not completely new in tourism marketing (Mazanec, 1990; Moutinho, Rita and Curry, 1996; Wöber, 1999). Nowadays, the application of different techniques is usual, and AHP model is technique that could help decisions makers in preparing good deci-sions. Application of this model is not always easy; first of all, we need the expert knowl-edge and experience, good choice of criterions and sub criterions that affect on alternatives, and appropriate software to make calculations easier. Software that supports this model is EC2000, applied in Serbia in area of water resources, forestry, selection of plants, etc. With the current issue as a base, our aim is to deeply research application of this model in touristic area. We started with hypothetical example, explained basic notes and came to the conclu-sion that this is a field that could be very good starting point for the future work.