ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PRODUK KERIPIK PISANG KEMASAN BUNGKUS (Studi Kasus : Home Industry Arwana Food Tembilahan)

  • Wardah S
  • Iskandar I
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Abstract

Peramalan adalah metode untuk memperkirakan suatu nilai dimasa depan dengan menggunakan data masa lalu. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada Home Industry Arwana Food. Pada penelitian ini, penulis membahas mengenai analisis peramalan penjualan produk kripik pisang untuk jenis kemasan bungkus. Peramalan yang dilakukan mengggunakan tiga metode yaitu metode Moving Average, metode Exponential Smoothing with Trend dan metode Trend Anayisis dengan membandingkan tingkat kesalahan (error) terkecil, maka metode peramalan yang  terpilih yaitu metode Trend Analysis, dengan nilai MAD sebesar 161,3539, MSE sebesar 55744,16, dan standar error sebesar 242,947. Dari analisis pengolahan data yang telah dilakukan berdasarkan metode peramalan yang terpilih, peramalan penjualan terhadap produk kripik pisang jenis kemasan bungkus adalah sebanyak 1121,424 atau 1122 bungkus/bulan, artinya pihak Home Industry Arwana Food Tembilahan harus menyediakan produk kripik pisang kemasan bungkus adalah sebanyak 1122 bungkus untuk tiap bulannya.      ABSTRACT Forecasting is a method to estimate a value of the future using past data. This research was conducted at the Home Industry Arowana Food. In this study, the authors discuss the analysis of product sales forecasting banana chips for this type of packaging wrap. Forecasting that do use traditional three methods are methods Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing method with Trend and Trend Anayisis method by comparing the level of errors (error) the smallest, then the selected forecasting method is the method of Trend Analysis, with a value of 161.3539 MAD, MSE of 55744 , 16, and the standard error of 242.947. From the analysis of data processing that has been carried out based on the method chosen forecasting, sales forecasting for products banana chips are as many types of packaging wrap 1121.424 or 1 122 packs / month, meaning the Home Industry Arowana Food Tembilahan must provide products banana chips wrapped packs is as much as 1122 wrap for each month.

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CITATION STYLE

APA

Wardah, S., & Iskandar, I. (2018). ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PRODUK KERIPIK PISANG KEMASAN BUNGKUS (Studi Kasus : Home Industry Arwana Food Tembilahan). J@ti Undip : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 11(3), 135. https://doi.org/10.14710/jati.11.3.135-142

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