This article examines current cost drivers and potential avenues to reduced cost for monolithic, glass-glass Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 (CIGS) modules by constructing a comprehensive bottom-up cost model. For a reference case where sputtering plus batch sulfurization after selenization (SAS) is employed, we compute a manufacturing cost of $69/m2 if the modules are made in the United States at a 1 GW/year production volume. At 14% module efficiency, this corresponds to a manufacturing cost of $0.49/WDC and a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $0.67/WDC. We estimate that MSP could vary within ±20% of this value given the range of quoted input prices, and existing variations in module design, manufacturing processes, and manufacturing location. Potential for reduction in manufacturing costs to below $0.40/WDC may be possible if average production module efficiencies can be increased above 17% without increasing $/m2 costs; even lower costs could be achieved if $/m2 costs could be reduced, particularly via innovations in the CIGS deposition process or balance-of-module elements. We present the impact on cost of regional factors, CIGS deposition method, device design, and price fluctuations. One metric of competitiveness-levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - is also assessed for several U.S. locations and compared to that of standard multi-crystalline silicon (m(c-Si)) and cadmium telluride (CdTe).
Horowitz, K. A. W., Fu, R., & Woodhouse, M. (2016). An analysis of glass-glass CIGS manufacturing costs. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 154, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2016.04.029