Anti-Doping Systems in Sports are Doomed to Fail: A Probability and Cost Analysis

  • Maciej Henneberg A
N/ACitations
Citations of this article
21Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

Abstract

Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system. Methods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability) Results: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 tests per athlete must be done costing ~$25,000. Conclusion: Testing is not economically viable for effective detection. Changes are thus required to the current system to combat sophisticated doping techniques.

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Maciej Henneberg, A. H. (2014). Anti-Doping Systems in Sports are Doomed to Fail: A Probability and Cost Analysis. Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies, 04(05). https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-0673.1000148

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free