Intelligent based hybrid renewable energy resources forecasting and real time power demand management system for resilient energy systems

Abstract

The rapid growth of hybrid renewable Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) generation possess various challenges with inaccurate forecast models in stochastic power systems. The prime objective of this research is to maximum utilization of scheduled power from hybrid renewable based DERs to maintain the load-demand profile with reduce distributed grid burden. The proposed mixed input-based cascaded artificial neural network (Formula presented.) is realized for the prediction of a short-term based hourly solar irradiance and wind speed. The testing approach is performed through a historical hourly dataset of the proposed site. Further, the normalized data sets are divided into hourly-based samples for validating the load demand power with respect to the variation in metrological data. In this paper, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model is simulated for short-term power demand prediction. This adaptive methodology is an effective approach for load-demand management which is based on cross-entropy. It also confirmed that during testing, the forecasting mean error and cross-entropy are less than 5% under a specific time slap of an individual day. The regression analysis is performed through the time series fitting simulation tool at different time horizons. The performance evaluation of the designed model is compared with the multi-layer perceptron model. Simulation results display the proposed mixed input-based cascaded system has enhanced accuracy and optimal performance than the multi-output correlated perceptron model.