Impact of Weather Regimes on Solar Power Variability in Algeria

Abstract

Driven by growing electricity demand, Algeria is diversifying its energy mix with a focus on solar power. A successful transition requires robust climate analysis to guide decision makers and investments. This study investigated the influence of specific weather regimes (WRs) on Algeria’s energy sector, analyzing their summer impacts on solar production, energy demand, and the resulting energy shortfall, expressed as the daily difference between demand and potential solar generation. We further examined the occurrence of Energy Supply Droughts (ESDs), periods when this shortfall exceeds a critical threshold. It was observed that days with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−) followed by an Atlantic Ridge (AR) generate a solar surplus and lower demand, creating ideal conditions for energy storage. Conversely, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) reduces production while increasing demand, frequently leading to ESD events. Although generally neutral, Scandinavian Blocking (BL) also contributes to ESDs by amplifying unfavorable energy anomalies. Notably, ESD events associated with NAO+ and BL show strong convergence with similar synoptic configurations and spatial structures. However, while WRs are useful for operational forecasting, predicting extreme ESDs requires an approach that directly targets extreme weather conditions.