Corona and globalization: Arrested development

Abstract

The term “globalization” doesn’t refer to a current epoch of world history, but to an undulated process interrupted by harsh setbacks. Its phases of upswing are characterized by exponential growth. They end when tipping points arrive. For globalization inevitably has its winners and losers, these phases are paralleled by processes of fragmentation in other countries, macro-regions and societies. The article provides a sketch of both types of processes, illustrated by examples from world history. It thereby shows that they must not be considered mere byproducts of technological development in transport and communication, but also depend on institutions that guarantee “International Public Goods” (IPGs), above all safety, stability and connectivity. Only great powers can provide this type of goods, for only they have the resources to do so, then again for only they are confronted with a volunteer’s dilemma. Moreover globalization depends on a grand narrative that marginalizes competing schools of thought. Crises emerge either when transactions driving the process reach a tipping point, or when great powers decline and are no longer ready or able to provide IPGs. Now critical discourses emerge and become hegemonic in the face of successive crises undermining the grand narrative. This results in social division between cosmopolitans and populists. Both “big players” currently face different dilemmas conditioned by their positions as hegemonic power (USA) and freerider (China), in each case causing them to act neo-isolationist. The result: IPGs are no longer guaranteed, globalization is in crisis. This development has been catalysed by the Corona-pandemic.