Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024

Abstract

An intense rainfall event affected the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 15 and 16 April 2024. This study investigated the atmospheric conditions responsible for the formation of large convective storms during this period. Specifically, we analyzed the atmospheric dynamics and large-scale flow that led to the development of a cut-off low-pressure system (COL) over the Arabian Peninsula on 15 April 2024, triggering a two-day period of intense precipitation over the UAE. Our findings indicate that the storms were driven by upper-air instability, a prolonged moisture influx from the monsoon system into the UAE, and the presence of a surface front. Some regions recorded over 200 mm of precipitation within this period, resulting in flash floods, infrastructure disruptions, and significant impacts on the local population. The unusual development of the rainfall event was linked to the displacement of the subtropical jet (STJ), which facilitated the formation and intensification of a COL traversing the region.