Predicting invasive plants in California

Abstract

Preventing plant invasions or eradicating incipient populations is much less costly than confronting large well-established populations of invasive plants. We developed a preliminary determination of plants that pose the greatest risk of becoming invasive in California, primarily through the horticultural industry. We identified 774 species that are invasive elsewhere in Mediterranean climates but not yet invasive in California. From this list, we determined which species are sold through the horticulture industry, whether they are sold in California and whether they have been reported as naturalized in California. We narrowed the list to 186 species with the greatest potential for introduction and/or invasiveness to California through the horticultural trade. This study provides a basis for determining species to evaluate further through a more detailed risk assessment that may subsequently prevent importation via the horticultural pathway. Our results can also help land managers know which species to watch for in wildlands.