Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With T1 High-Grade Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict lymph node (LN) metastasis preoperatively in patients with T1 high-grade urothelial carcinoma. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated the data of 2,689 patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) treated with radical cystectomy (RC) and bilateral lymphadenectomy in two medical centers. Eventually, 412 patients with T1 high-grade urothelial carcinoma were enrolled in the primary cohort to develop a prognostic nomogram designed to predict LN status. An independent validation cohort (containing 783 consecutive patients during the same period) was subjected to validate the predicting model. Binary regression analysis was used to develop the predicting nomogram. We assessed the performance of the nomogram concerning its clinical usefulness, calibration, and discrimination. Results: Overall, 69 (16.75%), and 135 (17.24%) patients had LN metastasis in the primary cohort and external validation cohort, respectively. The final nomogram included information on tumor number, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), fibrinogen, and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR). The nomogram showed good predictive accuracy and calibration with a concordance index in the primary cohort of 0.853. The application of the nomogram in the external validation cohort still gave good discrimination (C-index, 0.845) and good calibration. The analysis of the decision curve shows that the nomogram has clinical application value. Conclusion: The nomogram that incorporated the tumor number, tumor size, LVI, fibrinogen, and MLR showed favorable predictive accuracy for LN metastasis. It may be conveniently used to predict LN metastasis in patients with T1 high-grade urothelial carcinoma and be helpful in guiding treatment decisions.