Impact of weather and climate advisories on agricultural outcomes in Pakistan

Abstract

The earth is warming, and the frequency of extreme weather events have been rapidly growing globally with unprecedented consequences to farming communities. In principle, weather and climate information services (WCIS) can help farmers better manage their activities and farm level outcomes by supporting their decision-making with relevant and usable information to address the potential impacts of expected changing climate conditions. But, in practice, can the availability and use of WCIS help improve agricultural outcomes given the weather and climate related uncertainties? To understand the use and impact of WCIS in the cotton-wheat cropping areas of Pakistan, we conducted a multistage stratified clustered random sample of 612 farm households in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Over 55% of the farm households in the sample indicated that they used WCIS provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department and other sources for making their agricultural decisions. Our analysis, however, suggests that the impact of using WCIS on major farm outcomes (i.e. farm revenue, costs, profits, and input usage) is not statistically significant when compared with those farm households not using WCIS (null result). This result is robust to different estimation techniques (i.e. ordinary least squares, instrumental variable approach, and propensity score matching method). From the focus group discussions, we gathered that farmers perceived WCIS as less reliable, often unclear, and difficult to understand as this information is not translated and transmitted in local languages. Addressing these issues can help reduce the impact of climate and weather variability on farm outcomes in those provinces as well as in Pakistan more generally. Our study suggests that, under uncertainty, emphasis should be on WCIS that farmers can rely on for making farming related decisions.