The relationship between Pacific Decadal and Southern Oscillations: Implications for the climate of northwestern Baja California

Abstract

The relationship between the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is studied by means of forced and secondary forecast models of the PDO. These models are constructed with the same indices frequently associated to different aspects of the climate of northwestern Baja California, namely the Southern Oscillation Index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (SOI and PDOI). The secondary forecast model explains about 40% of the interannual variability of the PDO while the forced model explains about 60% of PDO interannual plus decadal variability. These results confirm that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forces the PDO. Thus interannual and decadal variabilities in the Pacific Ocean, and related climatological impacts in northwestern Baja California, may be mainly ENSO-generated. As ENSO forecasts improve, PDO forecast and climatological predictions in this region should also improve.