Methodological Approaches to Forecasting Bread Prices in Ukraine

Abstract

The article examines the current state of the bread and bakery market in Ukraine on the basis of the exponential smoothing method. An important aspect of the analysis of the bakery industry state is the issue of pricing for the number one product in Ukraine - bread and bakery products. The purpose of this study was to analyze the level of bread prices in the regional context, to identify trends and factors influencing them and to propose models on the basis of which it is advisable to make operational forecasts of bread prices. The study was performed on the basis of monitoring data of average consumer prices for wheat bread from first grade flour by months of 2017 and 2018 in the selected regions, Kyiv and Ukraine as a whole. The choice of areas is done due to their territorial location, and the choice of bread type - due to steady popularity among consumers. The dynamics of product prices, in particular in the regional aspect, was analyzed. The example of wheat bread made from first grade flour shows significant differences in the price level for these products by regions. Trends in price changes and their dependence on such factors as the price of flour, the price of gasoline A-95, wages have been identified. The expediency of using for the estimation of bread prices of models based on series of dynamics by exponential smoothing is shown. High accuracy of the received models is confirmed. The proposed approach in this study can be used by industry to construct models of product price forecasting as a benchmark for making management decisions about the real price. Performing these calculations online on a computer will provide businesses with particular advantages over their competitors, as well as the ability to plan their economic performance at the desired level.