A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems

Abstract

Following a strong El Niño, the climate of the North Pacific underwent a rapid and striking transition in late 1998. Upwelling-favorable winds strengthened over the California Current (CC), and winds weakened in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Coastal waters of the CC and GOA cooled by several degrees, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) reversed sign and remained negative through summer 2002. Zooplankton biomass in the northern CC doubled and switched from warm to cold water species dominance, coho and chinook salmon stocks rebounded, and anchovy and osmeriids increased. Persistent changes in atmosphere and upper ocean fields and ecosystem structure suggest a climate regime shift has occurred, similar (opposite) to shifts observed in 1947 (1925 and 1976). If the 1998 regime shift in the northern CC is completely analogous to earlier shifts, then ecosystem structure should have changed in the GOA. Recent surveys indicate this ecosystem has transformed as well.