Alternatives for natural-gas-based heating systems: A quantitative GIS-based analysis of climate impacts and financial feasibility

Abstract

The heating of buildings currently produces 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable heating technologies can reduce heating-related CO2 emissions by up to 90%. We present a Python-based GIS model to analyze the environmental and financial impact of strategies to reduce heating-related CO2 emissions of residential buildings. The city-wide implementation of three alternatives to natural gas are evaluated: high-temperature heating networks, low-temperature heating networks, and heat pumps. We find that both lowering the demand for heat and providing more sustainable sources of heat will be necessary to achieve significant CO2-emission reductions. Of the studied alternatives, only low-temperature heating networks and heat pumps have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by 90%. A CO2 tax and an increase in tax on the use of natural gas are potent policy tools to accelerate the adoption of low-carbon heating technologies.