Migration determinants and potential impact of brexit on migration from the CEE countries to the UK

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify the determinants of migration from the selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to the UK and to measure the potential effects of Brexit on the migration from these states. The inclusion of CEE countries (Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Slovakia, Hungary) into the EU has increased the number of the UK immigrants, on average, by almost 1300% over 2004-2015, as compared to Turkey, Russia and Ukraine. There is high uncertainty regarding the future UK policies on migration and consequently, regarding the number of immigrants from the CEE countries, but some models were built under two hypotheses: restrictions and no restrictions in the UK immigration. Mixed-effects Poisson models were built under the hypothesis that the CEE migrants will be treated as in the period before their EU entrance. The empirical findings indicate that, after Brexit, the number of the UK immigrants from the mentioned CEE countries might decrease by 2 times, until 2020. Under the hypothesis of no restrictions for the EU immigration, the number of immigrants from the EU in the sample might increase by 4 times until 2020, according to the Bayesian ridge regressions. In this context, the UK should focus on policies that promote immigration of a high-skill labor force and do not limit the number of low-skill immigrants in those fields where there is a deficit of UK-born workers. In case of a decline in the immigration, from the CEE countries, economic issues related to labor productivity, economic growth and government expenditures might appear.