COVID-19 outbreak in post-soviet states: Modeling the best and worst possible scenarios

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods: The data on COVID-19 cases extracted from official governmental sources until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the pandemic outbreak in 10 PostSoviet states and forecasting over the period of 10, 30 and 60 days. The optimal measures (best-scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst-scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries were estimated. Results: It was estimated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached their peaks, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan are expected to reach their peaks in the early May-2020), with comparatively low cases of COVID-19 in the best-case scenario. In contrast, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine would likely see the outbreaks with the largest number of COVID-19 cases amongst the studied Post-Soviet States in the worst-scenario during the next 30 and 60 days. Conclusion: Governmental response was shown to be as an important determining factor responsible for the development of COVID-19 epidemic in Post-Soviet states. The current protection rates should be maintained to reduce active cases during upcoming 30 and 60 days. The estimated possible scenarios based on the proposed model can potentially be used by healthcare professionals from each studied Post-Soviet States as well as others to improve plans to contain the current and future epidemic.