Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation

Abstract

The performance of five global coupled climate models in simulating temporal trends in annual indices of extremes in surface temperature and precipitation during the second half of the 20th century is examined. The selected models are all represented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Linear trend patterns for individual model runs along with single- and multimodel ensemble mean trend patterns are objectively compared against corresponding observed trend fields. Some positive effects of the multimodel "super-ensemble" approach were found when there was reasonable skill in contributing members. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.