The impacts of corn prices along consumer chain

Abstract

This study aims to identify the direction and intensity of transmission of shocks in the prices of corn grain, available to rural producers, on the prices of products that use corn grain as an input, available to final Brazilian consumers. The products considered in the analysis were chicken meat, pork, beef, eggs, milk, and ethanol. The estimation method employed was the Structural Error-Corrected Vector Autoregression (SVEC), based on data from January 2001 to December 2022. The results indicate that shocks in corn grain prices positively influence all retail products. The cumulative 12-month elasticity of impulse to the unanticipated 1% shock in corn prices, the most expressive impacts were on egg prices (0.197%), pork (0.145%), followed by chicken meat (0.137%), ethanol (0.107%), beef (0.086%), and milk and dairy products (0.031%).