Vulnerability and Adaptation of Coastal Forests to Climate Change: Insights from the Igneada Longos Forests of Türkiye

Abstract

As one of Europe’s rare floodplain forest ecosystems, the İğneada Longos Forests face increasing ecological pressures; this study examines land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the İğneada Longos Forests, a protected national park in Turkey, between 1984 and 2014, while also assessing future climate change impacts under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this context, the MaxEnt model, which exhibits a very high sensitivity, was used to determine the land use/land change and the change in natural distribution habitats of the forest tree species in the İğneada Longos Forests, which constitute the research area, due to the effects of climate change. The analysis of forest management plans revealed significant LULC shifts, including wetland loss, cropland expansion, and declines in pioneer tree species, such as the lowland maple and the European ash, due to anthropogenic pressures and increasing droughts. Climate modeling using the Emberger and De Martonne indices projected severe aridity by 2100, with Mediterranean climate dominance expanding (up to 89.25% under SSP3–7.0) and humid zones disappearing. These changes threaten biodiversity, carbon sequestration capacity, and ecosystem stability, particularly in floodplain forests, which are critical for carbon storage. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies, stakeholder collaboration, and climate-resilient forest management to mitigate ecological degradation and sustain ecosystem services under escalating climate stress.