A Mathematical Analysis of Food Waste Production and Redistribution

Abstract

Food insecurity affects millions of individuals in the United States. We develop a model to address food insecurity by repurposing food waste and apply this methodology to Texas. We also develop models to analyze food waste habits of consumers and optimal distribution strategies for food banks. We first consider whether a state wastes enough food to feed its food insecure population, regardless of distribution methods. We determine that there is not enough to feed the food insecure population of Texas assuming each person needs 2,000 kcal per day. To establish a food consumption baseline for different demographics in the United States, we use government data to find the average number of calories needed per day by age, gender, and activity level. Then, to determine how income affects what food types households eat, we use a nonlinear model fit to predict the proportion of income spent on given food types based on annual income. This allows us to calculate how many pounds of food are wasted for any given household. Finally, we analyze three potential food distribution strategies, including fixed and mobile distribution centers. A key feature of our model is its extensibility and the use of computer simulation to model consumers as rational agents. Of the models tested, we find a model with multiple fixed distribution centers to be the most effective in the long-run (after 4.8 years). The paper was originally a submission to the MathWorks Math Modeling Challenge in 2018.