Market and resource impacts of a Canadian lumber tariff

Abstract

Recent imposition of another import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber found support both as a means to offset alleged unfair Canadian cost advantages and to force reductions in Canadian old-growth harvest. Our analysis provides estimates of the traditional market impacts associated with this policy, plus the less commonly considered resource tradeoffs. The gross revenues of US lumber producers and private timber sellers will rise at the expense of increased expenditures by US lumber consumers. Timber harvest will decline in Canada but rise on private lands in the United States, lowering US softwood inventories.