Artificial intelligence-estimated electrocardiographic sex as a recurrence predictor after atrial fibrillation catheter ablation

Abstract

Aims We explored whether artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiographic (ECG) sex discrepancy would predict atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation for paroxysmal AF. Methods The AI-ECG sex prediction model was developed from the MIMIC-IV and externally validated on CODE-15% (AUC 0.89) and results and UK Biobank (AUC 0.92) cohorts. After validation, we estimated AI-ECG sex from pre-procedural sinus rhythm ECGs among paroxysmal AF patients scheduled for catheter ablation using data from a pooled AF ablation cohort (n = 4385) in South Korea. ECG sex discrepancy was defined as ECG sex probability of more than 50% for the opposite sex. During a median follow-up of 24 months, 1094 recurrences developed [median age 60 (52–67) years; women 29.0%]. ECG sex discrepant patients were older, had more heart failure, and had elevated diastolic filling pressure compared with ECG sex non-discrepant patients. The odds ratio (OR) for left atrial enlargement was significantly higher among ECG sex discrepant women [adjusted OR 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14–2.44, P = 0.008] but not among men (adjusted OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66–1.17, P = 0.368). The 5-year cumulative event rate of AF recurrence was significantly higher among ECG sex discrepant women (log rank, P = 0.015) but not among men (log rank, P = 0.871). The 5-year risk of AF recurrence was significantly higher among ECG sex discrepant women [hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% CI 1.10–1.83, P = 0.007] but not among men (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.76–1.34, P = 0.940). Conclusion Pre-procedural ECG sex discrepancy has a prognostic value for AF recurrence after catheter ablation for paroxysmal AF in women.