Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study

3Citations
Citations of this article
23Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

Abstract

Understanding and improving reproducibility is crucial for scientific progress. Prediction markets and related methods of eliciting peer beliefs are promising tools to predict replication outcomes. We invited researchers in the field of psychology to judge the replicability of 24 studies replicated in the large scale Many Labs 2 project. We elicited peer beliefs in prediction markets and surveys about two replication success metrics: the probability that the replication yields a statistically significant effect in the original direction (p < 0.001), and the relative effect size of the replication. The prediction markets correctly predicted 75% of the replication outcomes, and were highly correlated with the replication outcomes. Survey beliefs were also significantly correlated with replication outcomes, but had larger prediction errors. The prediction markets for relative effect sizes attracted little trading and thus did not work well. The survey beliefs about relative effect sizes performed better and were significantly correlated with observed relative effect sizes. The results suggest that replication outcomes can be predicted and that the elicitation of peer beliefs can increase our knowledge about scientific reproducibility and the dynamics of hypothesis testing.

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Forsell, E., Viganola, D., Pfeiffer, T., Almenberg, J., Wilson, B., Chen, Y., … Dreber, A. (2019). Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study. Journal of Economic Psychology, 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.009

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free