FOG/VISIBILITY FORECAST AND VERIFICATION AT IGI AIRPORT, NEW DELHI DURING THE WINTER SEASONS OF 2020-21 & 2021-22

Abstract

The reduction in visibility due to fog leads to cancellation of flights, delays and diversions at IGI Airport, New Delhi during the winter season. Accurate prediction of fog/ visibility is required within sufficient lead time to make the flight operations safer, economical and more convenient. This study attempts to improve the fog/visibility forecast at IGI airport for the months of December and January during the winter seasons of 2020-21 and 2021-22. Various meteorological parameters required to predict the fog/visibility are obtained from IMD GFS forecasted meteorological information which are valid for next 24 and 48-hours. Forecast verification was performed using the METAR and synoptic observations. The results for 2020-21 fog/visibility forecast for 24-hours are promising with a POD of 0.92, critical success index as 0.68, and false alarm ratio as 0.28. Moreover, the 2021-22 results for 24 -hours fog /visibility forecast are also observed to be promising with a POD of 0.73, critical success index of 0.54 and false alarm ratio at 0.32.  This method gives fairly accurate predictions in point locations and can also be used for a larger spatial area. However, the 48-hours forecast performance needs further improvement. The method also predicted the wind speed and relative humidity which were found to be in agreement with the observed data to a great extent. In the upcoming years, the fog/visibility forecast method will be more robust with better prediction accuracy of meteorological parameters from model outputs and observations.