Gaining Profound Knowledge of Cholera Outbreak: The Significance of the Allee Effect on Bacterial Population Growth and Its Implications for Human-Environment Health

Abstract

Cholera is a bacterial disease that is commonly transmitted through contaminated water, leading to severe diarrhea and rapid dehydration that can prove fatal if left untreated. The complexity of the disease spread arises from the convergence of several distinct and interrelated factors, which previous research has often failed to consider. A significant scientific limitation of the existing literature is the simplistic assumption of linear or logistic dynamics of the disease spread, thereby impeding a thorough assessment of the effectiveness of control strategies. Since environmental factors are the most influential determinant of Vibrio bacterial growth in nature and are responsible for the resurgence, propagation, and disappearance of cholera epidemics, we have proposed a S-I-R-S model that combines bacterial dynamics with the Allee effect. This model takes into account the environmental influence and allows for a better understanding of the disease dynamics. Our results have revealed the phenomenon of bi-stability, with backward and forward bifurcation. Furthermore, our findings have demonstrated that the Allee effect provides a robust framework for characterizing fluctuations in bacterial populations and the onset of cholera outbreaks. This framework can be used for assessing the effectiveness of control strategies, including regular environmental sanitation programs, adherence to hygiene protocols, and monitoring of unfavorable weather conditions.