A nonlinear mixed-effects height-to-diameter ratio model for several tree species based on Czech national forest inventory data

Abstract

Height-to-diameter at breast height (DBH) ratio (HDR) is an important tree and stand stability measure. Several factors such as stand dynamics, natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and silvicultural tending significantly affect HDR, and, therefore, in-depth investigation of HDR is essential for better understanding of ecological processes in a forest. A nonlinear mixed-effects HDR model applicable to several tree species was developed using the Czech national forest inventory data comprising 13,875 sample plots and 348,980 trees. The predictive performance of this model was evaluated using the independent dataset which was originated from 25,146 trees on 220 research sample plots. Among various tree- and stand-level variables describing tree size, site quality, stand development stage, stand density, inter-tree spacing, and competition evaluated, dominant height (HDOM), dominant diameter (DDOM), relative spacing index (RS), and DBH-to-quadratic mean DBH ratio (dq) were identified as the most important predictors of HDR variations. A random component describing sample plot-specific HDR variations was included through mixed-effects modelling, and dummy variables describing species-specific HDR variations and canopy layer-specific HDR variations were also included into the HDR model through dummy variable modelling. The mixed-effects HDR model explained 79% of HDR variations without any significant trends in the residuals. Simulation results showed that HDR for each canopy layer increased with increasing site quality and stand development stage (increased HDOM) and increasing competition (increased RS, decreased DDOM and dq). Testing the HDR model on the independent data revealed that more than 85% of HDR variations were described for each individual species (Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, and European beech) and group of species (fir species, oak species, birch and alder species) without significant trends in the prediction errors. The HDR can be predicted with a higher accuracy using the calibrated mixed-effects HDR model from measurements of its predictors that can be obtained from routine forest inventories. To improve the prediction accuracy, a model needs to be calibrated with the random effects estimated using one to four randomly selected trees of a particular species or group of species depending on the availability of their numbers per sample plot. The HDR model can be applied for stand stability assessment and stand density regulation. The HDR information is also useful for designing a stand density management diagram. Brief implications of the HDR model for designing silviculture strategies and forest management planning are presented in the article.