Prediction of the future landuse and land cover changes in the Parangtritis sand dune : a spatio temporal analysis using QGIS MOLUSCE

Abstract

This study was aimed to analyze the changes and predict the future land use in the Parangtritis Sand Dunes, located in Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta Special Region, Indonesia. Parangtritis Sand Dunes face the threat of damage due to various human factors such as settlements, tourism, agriculture, plantations, etc. The Cellular Automata method, coupled with the Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plug-in, was employed to assess the dynamics of land cover/land use and make projections for the future. The analysis revealed significant changes in several land cover classes between 2019 and 2021, while others remained relatively stable. From 2019 to 2021, the change in area amounted to 5.6 hectares, while from 2021 to 2031 the change was only slight, amounting to 0.7 hectares. So it can be concluded that the change in the area of sand dunes in the future, namely in 2031, has not changed much, only increased by 0.7 Ha. So that more effort is needed to curb the core zone intended for the preservation of the Parangtritis sand dunes. Further investigation into the underlying causes of these shifts could provide valuable insights for effective land management and conservation efforts.