Could COVID-19 pandemic be stopped with joint efforts of travel restrictions and public health countermeasures? A modelling study

Abstract

Objective We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. Design A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. Setting Worldwide. Interventions Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. Main outcome The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Results The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. Conclusions Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.