Trends in Rates of Heat-Related Deaths Across Population Groups in the United States, 2000-2023

Abstract

Heat-related mortality is a growing public health concern as global temperatures continue to rise, yet little is known about how trends differ across various population groups in the United States. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research from 2000 to 2023 and joinpoint regression models, we examined heat-related mortality trends across major demographic population groups. Our analysis revealed increasing mortality rates across all groups, with steep rises since 2018. American Indian/Alaska Native populations had the most pronounced increase: the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was 8.7% from 2011 to 2023, accelerating to 27.8% during 2018-2023. Heat-related mortality rates per 100 000 population increased during 2019-2023 among populations that were Hispanic (AAPC = 28.7%) and non-Hispanic Black (AAPC = 28.6%), and the AAPCs were significantly higher than among non-Hispanic White people (AAPC = 5.8% overall and 23.9% during 2019-2023). Asian American/Pacific Islander people had the least pronounced overall increases in heat-related mortality rates but had significant increases recently (AAPC = 25.2% during 2020-2023). These findings suggest the importance of considering differential patterns in heat-related mortality across population groups.