Decrease in RT-PCR Ct values among SARS-CoV-2 positive samples during themergence of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant in Malaysia

Abstract

Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) value in detecting the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is inversely proportionate to the virus load in the patient’s specimen. These values could be beneficial in the epidemic trajectory at the population level. The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant which emerged in late 2020, caused an unprecedented exponential increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection cases worldwide. In Malaysia, the surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and the inclining positivity rate contributed to the epidemic waves in late May 2021. Sudden surge in cases was suggested to be associated with increased transmission caused by the emergence of the B.1.617.2 variant. In the present study, Ct value distribution of the positive COVID-19 samples from 2020 and 2021 was tabulated against SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants determined from genomic sequencing. A significant decreasing pattern of median Ct values from overall 2020 and 2021 samples was evident (p<0.01). However, notable variability was observed in the Ct values between 2020 and 2021, which samples showing lower median Ct values in 2021. The percentages of SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants B.1.36 and B.1.524 were 31.6% and 68.4%, respectively, for samples obtained in October and December 2020. Whereas samples obtained in June and July 2021 were 100% of the B.1.617.2 variant. The population neutralizing antibody against SARS-CoV-2 during the initial peak of B.1.617.2 was low, however, increased during the B.1.617.2 wave. A decreasing trend in the Ct value distribution from samples tested in our laboratory correlated well with the increasing weekly COVID-19 cases reported by the Malaysia national data, which was subsequently attributed to the emergence of B.1.617.2 variant. This study proposes that analyzing Ct value distribution in screened SARS-CoV-2 samples could reveal population-level transmission dynamics and emerging variants. Coupled with genomic sequencing, it supports early control strategies against new SARS-CoV-2 strains.