A Piecewise Linear Multinomial Logit Model of Private Vehicle Ownership Behaviour of Indian Households

Abstract

Development of vehicle ownership models is challenging in developing countries due to lack of quality data. In the Indian context, although some studies have been conducted about disaggregate modelling of vehicle ownership behaviour, most of them are region specific. This paper reviews the development of a basic multinomial logit vehicle ownership model presented earlier by the same authors using available data sets in India and then presents another multinomial logit model which uses a segmented specification of the systematic utilities of vari-ous alternatives. The new model is designed to examine if the various factors affecting vehicle ownership behaviour do so differently for richer households as compared to the rest of the households. It is observed that the various fac-tors indeed affect private vehicle ownership decision making process differently for richer households. The new model is then tested for efficiency using a simulation testing technique. The simulation test shows that the new model is effective in modelling private vehicle ownership in Indian scenario. The paper also presents various infer-ences drawn from the coefficients of the explanatory variables included in the model.