African Climate and Climate Change

Abstract

Past estimates of the numbers of migrants caused to relocate as a result of climate change have ranged from millions to billions worldwide. Attempts to quantify the numbers of people affected have commonly been based around calculating the numbers of environmental refugees by projecting physical climate changes, such as sea-level rise or rainfall decline, on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the ability of individuals to cope with variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration have not supported such an approach with the recognition that migration decisions are usually not mono-causal but influenced by multiple factors involving complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions. In this context, agent based modelling offers a robust method to model autonomous decision making in relation to migration. In this chapter we discuss the theoretical development of an agent-based modelling approach to climate change-migration studies using the example of Burkina Faso. In doing so we cover questions of emergence, validation, and bounded rationality related to quantitative migration studies.