Analysis and Prediction of Land-use and Land-cover Changes and Driving Forces by using GIS and Remote Sensing in the Coka Watershed, Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Background: Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is among the dynamic environmental and ecological factors for monitoring and facilitating the developmental strategies to balance conservation and conflict of resource uses. This study aimed to analyze LULC changes that have occurred during 1988-2018 and its prediction for 2040-2060 periods. Methods: LULC changes were analyzed using geographic information system Landsat and predicted by CA-Markov model. Result: The results of this study confirmed that cultivated-land and rural-settlement, bare-land, built-up-area and waterbody have increased at an annual rate of 23.1, 2.2, 0.8 and 1.1 ha/year but forestland, bushland and grassland have decreased at an annual rate of 14.4, 4.1 and 8.7 ha/year, respectively. It is projected that the increase in cultivated-land, bare-land, built-up-area and waterbody but decreases the forestland, grassland and bushland. Expansion of agriculture and deforestation showed increasing trend on both previous and predicted LULC changes with upcoming expansion of bare-land due to major driving factor of population growth. Thus, well integrated landscape planning and reliable predictions for future LULC are needed to reduce the deterioration of environment.