Factors influencing the transition of China’s economic growth momentum

Abstract

Driven by factors such as structural economic shifts, technological breakthroughs, policy changes, and global economic transformations, China’s economic growth drivers have continuously evolved. We constructed a panel dataset encompassing 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2021 and utilized both panel data models and panel quantile models to delve into the underlying factors driving this transition. We further investigated the varying impacts of these factors across different temporal and geographical contexts based on the stage analysis and spatial cluster analysis. The findings revealed that capital accumulation, digital economy, and technological innovation were the major drivers shaping China’s economic growth momentum transition, exhibiting significant heterogeneity across different quantile levels. Additionally, we observed heterogeneity in the influencing factors across temporal periods and regions.