Assessing the Potential Distribution of a Vulnerable Tree under Climate Change: Perkinsiodendron macgregorii (Chun) P.W.Fritsch (Styracaceae)

Abstract

Species adaptation and their response to the warming climate offer understanding into the present geographical distribution and may assist in improving predictions regarding the expected response to future climate change. As a result, assessing the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is key for conserving important vulnerable species such as Perkinsiodendron macgregorii, a rare tree species of high ornamental value distributed only in the subtropical forests of China. In this study, 101 sampling points distributed in China and 11 climatic variables were selected and imported into the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of potential habitats under past, current, and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios and found that the total suitable area for P. macgregorii is 1.67 × 106 km2 in recent times. This area is mainly located in seven provinces of southern China (Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi). The habitat centroid of P. macgregorii has been in Jiangxi province from the past to the 2070s. In both the lowest and the highest emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), the potential distribution of P. macgregorii will slightly increase in the 2070s, indicating that climate change may have little effect on its distribution. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio_18) is the most important climatic factor, with an optimum range of 487.3–799.8 mm. Our work could help make scientific strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of P. macgregorii.