Unveiling the consequences of your breach growth model choice

Abstract

Within the frame work of the realisation of the 'Sigmaplan' for the river Schelde in Flanders (Belgium), a large-scale dike breaching experiment following overflow was held at Lillo (Antwerp) in 2012. The outcomes of the breach test serve to unveil the impact of a chosen breach growth model, to set application limits, to come up with guidelines for proper selection and usage of the model to be applied. Breach growth models are used to predict the breach dimensions and to estimate the flow through the breach. All assessed models pretty well succeed in this. However, starting from various premises and taking into account a (limited) set of different breaching mechanisms, the use of today's state-of-the-art breach growth models is not entirely trouble free.