Does climate change influence state fragility? Evidence for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of climate change on state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To do this, we estimate a country-time fixed effects panel data model using the two-way fixed effects estimator over the period 1995 to 2020 for 45 SSA countries. Our results show that climate change increases fragility in SSA; specifically, rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall increase the social, economic, political and security fragility of SSA countries. The study also reveals that gross domestic product, population growth, migrant remittances, foreign direct investment, natural resources, inflation and agricultural price volatility are mechanisms through which climate change exacerbates state fragility. Based on these results, we recommend climate change adaptation measures such as increasing water storage to cope with periods of extreme drought, growing climate-smart crops, and the introduction of environmental public policies.