Predicting Early Employability of Vietnamese Graduates: Insights from Data-Driven Analysis Through Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

Graduate employability remains a crucial challenge for higher education institutions, especially in developing economies. This study investigates the key academic and vocational factors influencing early employment outcomes among recent graduates at a public university in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. By leveraging predictive analytics, the research explores how data-driven approaches can enhance career readiness strategies. The analysis employed AI-driven models, particularly classification and regression trees (CARTs), using a dataset of 610 recent graduates from a public university in the Mekong Delta to predict early employability. The input factors included gender, field of study, university entrance scores, and grade point average (GPA) scores for four university years. The output factor was recent graduates’ (un)employment within six months after graduation. Among all input factors, third-year GPA, university entrance scores, and final-year academic performance are the most significant predictors of early employment. Among the tested models, CARTs achieved the highest accuracy (93.6%), offering interpretable decision rules that can inform curriculum design and career support services. This study contributes to the intersection of artificial intelligence and vocational education by providing actionable insights for universities, policymakers, and employers, supporting the alignment of education with labor market demands and improving graduate employability outcomes.