Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors

Abstract

Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). ERA5 showed that all locations historically had MAAT values below freezing, but all three parks were warming significantly (0.3–0.6 °C per decade). Observed trends of MAAT from 18 stations showed warming trends with 11 of the 18 being significant at the 95% confidence level using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Road corridor values are given for the: (1) proposed Ambler Road through GAAR, (2) Denali Park Road in DENA, and (3) McCarthy Road in WRST. Elevated risk from MAAT was projected in the mid-century period for the Denali Park Road and McCarthy Road and across all three park road corridors in the late-century period; elevated risk from JJA PCPT was projected in all periods for all road corridors.